Author Archives: tomallain

The Trump Chronicles, Volume 189: Where Does The Republican Party Go From Here?

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As I write this President Trump is in the last two years of his second term and cannot run again. It’s worth asking what the next two years and the election will bring us. Only fools make predictions but it’s my blog and I get to write what I want.

In 2015 I famously predicted the end of the current Republican party due to internal divisions. I was dead wrong. Since his election in 2016 Trump has run as the absolute head of the party and has made it clear that any dissent or disagreement will be answered without mercy.

The few politicians who have dared to disagree, to vote their conscience, have been eliminated. Think of Texas’ John Cornyn, Arizona’s Jeff Flake, Louisiana’s Bill Cassidy, Kentucky’s Thomas Massie are my best examples. Some were defeated in primaries to Trump’s picks and others declined to run again, believing they couldn’t win. Trump has been able to rule with an iron fist because he’s been able to employ his MAGA base.

But the events of the last few days has changed this dramatically. Here’s my best example: John Cornyn has represented Texas in the Senate since 2002. He’s had a reputation as a conservative who was willing to work his colleagues. This wasn’t enough for Trump and he encouraged Ken Paxton (Texas’ attorney general) to run against Cornyn in the primary and defeated him for the Republican nomination. And then Ken lost the election to Democrat James Talarico by 12 points. It was a stunning defeat in a state that most thought would always be Republican and Paxton lost even though Elon Musk pumped over $200 million into the campaign for Paxton. Trump also famously told voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot” on the belief that it would translate into votes for candidates all over the country.

It’s worth suggesting that Trump’s time and power are on the decline. In the last few days he’s vascilated between promising to work with Democrats and use his veto power. But either way he’s likely lost his ability to threaten his own party.

The results of the election are not over but it looks like Democrats will hold around 259 seats while the Republicans will hold 176. The senate, perhaps will be 55 Democrats and 45 Republicans. If the President vetoes a bill Congress can override the veto with a 2/3 majority which translates into 290 votes in the House and 67 in the Senate. If the Democrats vote as a block (and that’s always far from certain), only 31 Republican house members and 12 Republican senators will be needed.

In fairness we have no idea who will claim the mantle of Republican leadership and whoever it is will have to navigate choppy waters as Trump will no doubt try to keep his iron grip on the party. But I’m not sure he’ll be able to. Stay tuned.

More Thoughts On Yesterday’s Election

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It was clear from early last evening that the midterm elections were much favorable to the Democrats than anyone expect. So what happened? Well, many things but here are some of my thoughts.

It’s the economy stupid: Democratic consultant James Carville made this line famous during the 1992 Presidential campaign working for Bill Clinton. President Trump’s tariffs and war in Iran have raised prices on the things Americans need. Trump has attempted deny the damage he’s caused but that was unsuccessful. Funny how hearing how well the stock market is doing provides little comfort when you’re having to take a calculator to go shopping.

Many of us did what he asked: Even though he wasn’t on the ballot he asked voters to pretend I’m on the ballot. We did. Of course now he’s claiming the result isn’t his fault because he wasn’t on the ballot.

He didn’t keep his promises: When running for President in 2024 he criticized what he called forever wars and promised not not make the same mistake. Of course that’s before he invaded Iran.

So what happens now? I’m no better than anyone else at predicting the future, but expect a Republican bloodbath as members of his party attempt to shift the blame away from themselves.

Yes, I’m Back And Blogging On Election Night

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11:00 PM in California Not all the races are set but it’s clear it’s been a good night for the Democrats. This was hardly a surprise but President Trump has already begun to blame everyone else. For weeks he’s been calling voters to pretend he was on the ballot and it appeared we did. Tonight he posted on his social media: “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!” No doubt he will spend the next few days looking for scapegoats and he’s already turned on Fox News for not doing enough to help him.

10:00 PM in California Not long after I wrote the last hour, Susan Collins conceded. This comes as a surprise as she is one of the few Republicans who could attract Democratic voters. She insisted that she voted in the best interest of her constituents but for all her claims she voted as Trump told her and Maine just got fed up.

The polls in Alaska have just closed and we’re a long way from a final vote. The race is between Mary Petola and the incumbent Dan Sullivan. The wrinkle here is that there is another Dan Sullivan who is running as an independent. As you can imagine the Republicans are screaming that this is a conspiracy to confuse Alaskan voters into voting for the wrong Dan Sullivan. As a matter of fact, Trump has directed a lawsuit be filed and a criminal investigation opened against Mary. Again, this may change, but right now Mary is ahead of Senator Sullivan by more than votes for the other Dan. In other words, if you combine the votes of both Dan Sullivans, Mary still leads. Guess this takes the air out of the conspiracy.

9:00 PM in California It’s getting later but we’re still waiting to see if the Democrats will pick up Senate seats in Maine and Michigan. Both states normally take a while to report. We may need to wait a while on Alaska as they are in an hour behind the Pacific Time Zone.

Most of the energy in the race has been national, particularly with the House and the Senate. But the polls closed in California and it’s no surprise that our new governor will be Xavier Becerra who defeated Steve Hilton. Steve was never a threat to win and never really won the support of the national Republican party.

There will be much more of this written (some by me) but we need to talk about redistricting. I’ve spoke about this before but the Constitution mandates a census every 10 years and this be used to determine congressional districts. It’s been the custom that happen only then but Trump demanded some Republican states redistrict now in the hopes they could draw lines to add Republican seats in Congress. It appears to have failed. The problem with their strategy is that they couldn’t change the number of voters, only where the lines were drawn. Some Republicans found themselves in districts with more Democratic voters and this may have cost them.

8:00 PM in California As I write this it appears James Talarico has defeated Ken Paxton in the Texas senate race. That seat was previously held by John Cornyn who ran for reelection but was defeated in the primaries by Ken Paxton. President Trump backed Ken because he didn’t think John wasn’t loyal enough.

While we’re talking about Texas, the incumbent Governor Greg Abbott lost his reelection bid to Gina Hinojosa. It appears being a Republican in Texas is no longer a guarantee to win.

South Carolina also bears a look. Since 2003 Lindsey Graham served in the senate and had no reason to worry about being reelected. Tragically he died suddenly in July and President Trump asked his sister Darline to run for her brother’s seat. It was a nice sentiment but Darline simply lacked any experience and lost to Dr. Annie Andrews.

This is fast becoming an historic night for the Democrats and now let’s look at Ohio. Sherrod Brown served as senator from Ohio from 2007 to 2025 when he was defeated by Bernie Moreno. Sherrod then ran for the other Ohio seat and tonight beat Jon Husted.

There was an open seat in Iowa as Joni Ernst was retiring. Tonight the Democrat Josh Turek defeated Ashley Hinson. Again this was a state the Republicans never expected to have to fight for, let alone lose. Many Iowans farm for a living and they’ve been hurt by Trump’s tarriffs and the high price for diesel to run farm equipment and transport crops.

Of the states that nobody expected to be in play, Kansas has to rank the highest. They haven’t elected a Democratic Senator since George McGill in 1932. Like Iowa, farming is king in they’ve also been hurt by Trump’s policies. Incumbent Senator Roger Marshall lost to Adam Hamilton but there was an additional wrinkle. Senator Marshall is an OB-GYN and in a recent article it was revealed that he sued and jailed patients who either didn’t pay their bills or missed court dates. As a doctor he provided services to his patients and had reasonable expectations that he would be paid. But one of his patients , Meischa Zimmerman, asked the arresting officers to handcuff her out of sight of her 2 year old daughter.

7:00 PM in California As we all know, every two years we go to the polls for elections. All 435 members of the House of Representatives run, along with 1/3 of the Senate. Since the President runs every four years we won’t have that election, though President Trump has told us to pretend I’m on the ballot. Many of us have and it doesn’t look like it’s good news for him. After the 2016 Election I became a little jaded about polls and predictions and I’ve really held my breath until tonight. The President’s party normally loses seats in Congress on the “off year elections” and it’s been looking for a while that the Republicans may lose control of the House where they currently hold a 218 to 214 majority (with 1 independent and 2 seats vacant). In the Senate the Republicans currently hold 53 seats to 45 Democrats with 2 independents. For a long time it appeared the Republicans would hold because only 33 seats are up for election and the Democrats would have to flip four of them (the two independents caucus with the Democrats).

It’s still early but it appears clear that the Democrats will pick up enough seats and NBC News (the network I’m currently watching) projects that they will end up with 244 seats (to 187). It also appears they will pick up Senate seats in North Carolina and South Carolina; in addition, races in Texas, Kansas and Ohio are “leaning” Democrat. It’s too early to call but the path forward for the Republicans has significantly narrowed.

The Trump Chronicles, Volume 188: On Reflection He Owes Us An Apology

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I’ve written a few times on the debacle with the Reflecting Pool in Washington D.C., in June and August.

In a nutshell, last Spring President Trump announced that the Reflecting Pool was in bad shape and needed to be renovated. He hired a friend of his who he described as being “unbelievable at doing swimming pools.” You can guess the rest: the guy made a mess of things and the coating began to peel almost immediately.

It was clear to everyone that the job was botched but Trump simply cannot admit a mistake and he insisted it was sabotage. Yeah, about that: Last week the company acknowledged that they didn’t apply the primer correctly and mixed two incompatible chemicals.

I don’t think we’re done with this story.

The Trump Chronicles, Volume 187: The 2030 Census: Can Someone Explain To Trump That The Constitution Means What It Says?

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Last Month I wrote about Trump’s plan to end birthright citizenship was overuled by the Supreme Court and explained that if he didn’t like part of the Constitution that didn’t mean he could ignore it.

It appears he’s at it again, this time with the 2030 Census. Every 10 years since 1790 we’ve counted the number of people who live here on April 1st of that year. Article 1, Section 2, Clause 3 of the Constitution mandates that we count everyone. It states that “those bound to Service for a Term of Years” (slaves) be counted as 3/5 of a person and “Indians not taxed” (Native Americans living on reservations) not be counted. Both of those conditions no longer apply as slavery was banned by the 13th Amendment and Indians were made full citizens in 1924. In other words the Census counts everyone who is here.

This matters because this is how we determine the composition of the House of Representatives and the Electoral College.

Please note that at no time have we counted only voters. At the time of the Constitution only about 6% of people who lived here could vote. You can read an interesting timeline here about how that changed over the years. Even today citizens under 18 can’t vote but are counted.

But now the administration is proposing a change that would exclude non-citizens who don’t have a green card. A Green Card is a document issued by the government that allows a non-citizen to live and work in the United States.

However we feel about people who live and work (and pay taxes) here without proper documentation, we have never failed to count them. Trump also wants to exclude people who are here for a limited time (e.g. college students) though he gives no guidance on how it’s determined if they plan to stay. Again, and I’m wearying of saying this, if Trump wants to change the Constitution he needs to do it legally. Amending the Constitution isn’t easy, and it shouldn’t be, but it has been done 27 times.

I’m open to ideas on how we can dumb this down so Trump can understand it.

Grateful That The USS Lincoln Is Coming Home But What About The USS Spruance And The USS Michael Murphy?

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In a previous poast I wrote about how the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln has been out much too long and does not have adequate supplies. It left port in late 2025 and should have ended its cruise in May of 2026 but was delayed because it was still needed in the Arabian Sea.

Bowing to pressure it was announced that the USS Lincoln would indeed come home soon and be replaced by the USS George Washington. That’s good news for the USS Lincoln crew and we’re reading that they will stop in Thailand which will allow them a first port call since December when it stopped in Guam.

That’s good news for the USS Lincoln crew but there are three destroyers in the carrier group and two of them are staying. You can read here that while the USS Frank E Peterson Jr. will also return home the USS Spruance, USS Michael Murphy will stay. No word on when their cruise will end.

As I said last week these cruises are difficult and anyone who joins the navy knows that deployments often depend on decisions made by outside events. But this war has been plagued by a phenomenal and avoidable lack of planning. We owe them an explanation of why they are there and what objectives we seek. Right now they don’t know how long they’ll be there or what they are supposed to do.

Meanwhile their Commander in Chief is complaining about opposition to the construction of the White House Ballroom.

He famously avoided serving in Vietnam because of bone spurs. I hope this doesn’t prevent him from dancing when the ballroom opens.

The Trump Chronicles, Volume 186: And Now He’s Turning On Our Allies

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It’s known that President Trump operates in a simple us v. them world, friends and enemies. Since he first attacked Iran last February he has referred to them as scum and has threatened to end their civilization.

Vilifying your enemies is as old as warfare itself, and God knows Trump is good at this. But managing conflict also means supporting your allies and that appears beyond Don’s reach. He’s criticized NATO and even Israel.

But the last few days have shown an even higher level of crazy. Yesterday Trump announced that we would halt joint military exercises with South Korea, arguing that they “insult” North Korea. Except that we sided with South Korea in the Korean War from 1950 to 1953. The war didn’t end with a surrender or peace treaty but a cease fire. Technically we’re still at war with North Korea.

Now let’s move on to the nation of Oman. They are on the Arabian peninsula, across the Straight of Oman from Iran. They are our ally and have been trying to mediate between the United States and Iran. But, again, Trump is angry with them and has threatened to bomb the shit out of them.

It appears Trump is frustrated with the lack of progress on the war. I get it, we all are. But turning on our allies only makes him look more unhinged and makes our world more dangerous.

Seriously, Don, seek help.

The Trump Chronicles, Volume 185: How Much Longer Mr. Trump?

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Virtually all wars begin with the promise that it will be quick and relatively painless.

The Civil War famously began with both sides expecting it would all be over in a few weeks or months. The Confederates didn’t believe that the Union States cared all that much about keeping states that wanted to leave and the Union states believed that their superiority in technology (railroad tracks, armaments) would force the Confederates into a quick surrender. It was only after 4 years and 600,000 deaths that the war ended.

In 2003, six weeks after our invasion of Iraq President George W. Bush proclaimed Mission Accomplished aboard the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln. By the time our last troops left Iraq in December of 2011 over 2,000 American troops were dead and we’ll never know how many Iraqi’s died.

Enter President Trump in Iran. Last month I wrote about how he promised a quick war. Obviously that hasn’t happened but now we’re seeing new problems that anyone could have forseen.

We’re seeing reports that we’re running low on munitions including Patriot Missiles. Between missiles we’re using in Iran and missiles we’ve sold to Ukraine in their war against Russia, we’re using them up faster than we can produce them.

We’re also getting reports that sailors aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln are being strained. There’s an article about this that’s hard to read. The aircraft carrier was deployed in November of 2025 and was expected last until May of 2026. It’s tour has been extended with no end date.

Clearly deployments go longer than expected and these sailors knew what they were signing up for. But we’re also getting reports of shortages of food and other necessities to accompany the stress of a longer deployment.

When we send people into harm’s way we have an obligation to do all that we can to ensure their safety and to ensure they have what they need to complete the mission. Equally obviously our president is not doing this. As I said last month we entered this war with no justification and no path to its end. This needs to stop now.

The Justice Chronicles, Volume 46: Thoughts on Birthright Citizenship, Trump And The Supreme Court

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I have a running joke that I read Supreme Court opinions so you don’t have to. If a decision comes down that I find interesting I call the Supreme Court and have them send me a copy of the opinion (and yes, America, your tax dollars pay for this). I did this back in May when I wrote about Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump on tariffs.

On June 30, 2026 the court wrote their opinion on Trump v. Barbara. A quick synopsis: on July 28, 1868, in shortly after the Civil War the 14th Amendment was added to the U.S. Constitution. It states that “[a]ll persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

This has become known as “birthright citizenship” and the most proximate purpose was to grant citizenship to newly released slaves. But the understanding also normally expanded to anyone who was born here and this became an issue as we saw huge numbers of people immigrate to the United States in the decades since. Ellis Island opened in 1892 and from then to 1954 about 12,000,000 men, women and children came through their gates. Immigrants weren’t automatically made citizens but any children born here were.

The Supreme Court affirmed birthright citizenship in 1898 in the case of United States v. Wong Kim Ark. Mr. Ark was born in San Francisco around 1870 to Chinese immigrants. In 1882 Congress passed (and the President signed) the Chinese Exclusion Act which prohibited Chinese people from becoming American citizens. Mr. Ark sailed back to China to visit his family and, on his return in 1895, was denied readmission into the United States. He went to court, arguing that he was made a citizen at birth. By a 6-2 margin the Supreme Court agreed with him and he was allowed reentry.

In 2025 President Trump issued Executive Order 14160 refuting this. He argued that the phrase “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” denies citizenship to anyone born in the United States to a mother who is unlawfully here (and whose father isn’t a citizen) or anyone born to parents who are in the United States temporarily (e.g. on a student or tourist visa).

Ok maybe this wasn’t a quick synopsis. But the court ruled that the Executive Order is unconstitutional under the 14th Amendment and birthright citizenship remains the law of the land. So here’s my interpretation:

Both sides honed in on the phrase “subject to the jurisdiction thereof.” As an aside President Trump believes that the 14th Amendment was meant only for the children of former slaves but the Court didn’t even mention that.

The majority held that the phrase “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” applies only to four categories:
  1. Children of diplomats: If your mother is in the United States only because she is a diplomat working for a foreign government, you’re not automatically a citizen.
  2. Children born on foreign flagged ships in an American port: If you were born aboard a foreign ship in American waters.
  3. Children born to foreign occupiers: If your mother was in the United States as a member of a foreign army occupying land in the United States.
  4. Children born to Indians (Native Americans) on a reservation: If you were born on a reservation you were considered a citizen of that nation; it was called a “domestic dependent nation.” This became moot in 1924 when the Indian Citizenship Act was signed into law.
The minority opinion argued at great length that you cannot automatically become a citizen unless your parents were “permanently domiciled” in the United States, that is, owed no allegiance or loyalty to any other nation or sovereign and had no intention of returning. Only by proving absolute and eternal loyalty to the United States could your children be granted automatic citizenship. “Subject to the jurisdiction thereof” means that any interest in or loyalty to another country of sovereign, no matter how small, bars your children from being citizens. Furthermore, if you are not here legally there is no way you can be loyal to the United States as you have already shown a disregard for our laws.

OK, so this is my blog and it means I get to write my opinion. This should surprise nobody but I agree with the majority and am frightened that this wasn’t a unanimous decision. Here are my reasons:
  • Let’s begin with the case of undocumented persons (ie here illegally). I hold that people who came here without documentation didn’t come here with the intent of breaking our laws. They came because they were hungry, or fleeing violence, or just hoped to make a better life for themselves and their children. I think this calls us to reform our immigration system, not to exclude good hardworking people.
  • Immigrants came to our shores for different reasons and had different views on their homelands. In the 1970s many Americans of Irish descent supported the Irish Republican Army in their quest to break free of British rule. According to the minority opinion these Americans would be denied citizenship because of their support of Northern Ireland.
  • I live in the same neighborhood as the University of California, San Diego. Many are here under student visas and wish to stay here after they complete their studies but have difficulty navigating the Byzantine process of gaining permanent residency. They are bright, motivated, hard working and would greatly benefit our nation. Their status has nothing to do with them and everything to do with our broken immigration system.
  • As a subset we also have people who come here intending only a temporary stay but change their mind when they see the possibilities that not available to them in their home countries. Again, this says more about us than about them.
Finally, on a personal note. My father’s parents were both born in Canada and arrived here shortly before 1918. They came because they knew they would have more opportunity for a good life here and they were right. They had 7 children between 1920 and 1931. Five of them were sons. Of the five sons, four served in World War II or Korea or both. One of them served in World War II, Korea and Vietnam. And while they loved the United States they never stopped caring about Canada; one of my favorite childhood memories took place the summer of 1973 when we took my grandmother back to Canada to visit her surviving siblings. If you believe my grandparents weren’t true Americans don’t tell me. I won’t take it well.

Reflections On The Reflecting Pool

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It appears that the Reflecting Pool saga is coming to a conclusion. If you’ve never seen it, it’s a pool between the Lincoln Memorial and the Washington Monument and was built completed in 1922.

It’s not designed for any type of recreation but, like any pool, requires some maintenance. Water is pumped in from the Tidal Basin (Potomac River) and it’s filtered to cut down on the algae but there’s no chlorine and upkeep is not for the neighborhood pool guy.

This past April President Trump announced that the pool needed to be renovated and he hired American Industrial Coatings. Even though AIC had never done work for the government and even though they didn’t go through the normal process of bidding on the job, they got the job. Trump said this: “I have a guy who’s unbelievable at doing swimming pools. He looked at it. He called me up. He said: Sir, we can do something on it.” Did anyone else notice that the Reflecting Pool isn’t a swimming pool?

The next part was predictable: AIC botched the job. When the pool was filled with water in June it filled with algae which made the pool look and smell bad. It was then treated with hydrogen peroxide which caused the liner that AIC put down began to peel.

Trump, being Trump, refused to admit his mistakes and insisted that the lining began to peel because of vandalism. A man named David Hearn came to the edge of the pool and dipped his hand into the water. He was then arrested and charged with felony property destruction and was accused of “violently and forcefully” ripped the liner off the floor of the pool.

Turns out that was a lie too far. Turns out there was no evidence of this, despite government claims of proof. Last week the charges were dropped. You can find a timeline timeline here.

So if Mr. Hearn sues the government for prosecutorial misconduct where do I apply to be on the jury?